Tuesday, December 23, 2014
U.S. Economy Grew By 5% in Third Quarter of 2014
The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported a real surprise for us this morning (12/23/2014). The first growth estimate as reported by the BEA for the third quarter was 3.5%. Then on the second estimate for third quarter growth they reported that the economy grew in real terms by 3.9%. Then this morning they released their third estimate for third quarter GDP growth at 5%. This is really good news. It will be interesting to see the first estimate for 4th quarter growth, when it is released in late January 2015.
Tuesday, December 16, 2014
BMW Made A Car That Parks Itself By Talking To Your Watch
BMW Made A Car That Parks Itself By Talking To Your Watch
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BMW is back at CES next month with a self-driving i3 that finds a space in a multi-story car lot, parks itself, and comes back to the driver when summoned through a smartwatch app. And it doesn't even need GPS.
The i3 research vehicle does something similar to what Audi showed off two years ago, but unlike the self-parking A7 that used a combination of onboard sensors and beacons to traverse the garage, BMW takes it a step further.
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BMW modified the i3 with four laser sensors that provide a 360-degree view of what's around the car, navigating around other vehicles, columns, and pedestrians, sans-driver. It then finds an available space, parks, locks itself, and waits for the driver to call it through a voice command on their smartwatch.
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But like Audi's system from 2013, there's a rub. The Remote Valet Parking Assistant needs a digital map of the parking garage to navigate safely. BMW touts it as a way to ditch unreliable GPS in a car park, but it's just another part of a larger infrastructure puzzle that's going to be difficult to work out before these self-parking systems come online.
Sure, it's no self-drifting 1-series, but it's helluva lot more useful.
Tuesday, November 18, 2014
Thursday, November 13, 2014
Will September Sales Slump Temper Holiday Hiring? More Companies Announce Hiring Plans!
Retail sales slumped in September, according to the latest report from the Commerce Department. The question is, does the 0.3 percent decline signal potential difficulties when it comes to all-important holiday sales? “Consumers’ spending power certainly is not being helped by stagnant wages,” said John Challenger, CEO of global outplacement consultancy Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc. “However, consumers should find more money in their pockets heading into the holidays, thanks to job gains and falling gas prices. These factors will definitely help retailers who are also hoping to lure shoppers with lower prices.” Nationwide, retailers are poised to go on a holiday hiring binge. Many are already adding extra workers to their payrolls, and this alone, according to Challenger, should help fuel increased sales over the holidays. “We should not read too much into the September sales slump. It falls between back-to-school shopping and the holiday season. Sales could see a rebound in October, as Americans spend millions on Halloween costumes and decorations. This momentum could carry over into the holidays as shoppers feel more comfortable spending on items they may have held off on in recent years,” said Challenger. What is the outlook for holiday hiring this year? Are hiring plans based more on sales projections, traffic projections, or something else entirely? Will lower gas prices help boost holiday spending?
Thursday, November 6, 2014
China’s Economy Overtakes the U.S. as World’s Largest
China’s Economy Overtakes the U.S. as World’s Largest
China has overtaken the U.S. as the world’s largest economy, but only when it comes to purchasing power.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF), which measures countries in terms of market exchange rates and purchasing power parity (PPP), found thatChina contributes the most to global growth, the Financial Times reported Tuesday.
China gross domestic product is worth $17.6 trillion, while U.S. GDP is $17.4 trillion, with adjustments made for China’s low cost of living, according to the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook.
According to PPP logic, prices of goods aren’t the same in each country, so when making adjustments based on a country’s purchasing power—and converting a currency into its dollar equivalent—China is beating the U.S.
As Business Insider explains, “Though a typical person in China earns a lot less than the typical person in the U.S., simply converting a Chinese salary into dollars underestimates how much purchasing power that individual, and therefore that country, might have.”
In April, the Financial Times’s Chris Giles predicted the Chinese economy would overtake the U.S. But the U.S. maintains the lion’s share in terms of the raw value of its currency, one area where China has some catching up to do.
Monday, October 27, 2014
What will happen with the 2014 Midterm United States Senate Elections?
What will happen with the 2014 Midterm United States Senate Elections?
By Amos B Robinson, Robinson Analytics
October 26, 2014
We have slightly more than a week to go before the Senate midterm elections. What will the outcome be? Will the Democrats retain their control of the Senate or will the GOP take over. We will look at this from the perspective of voter-intention polls, probability models and prediction models.
If you listen to the major networks, it is not clear as to what the outcome will be. However, when we start to examine the polls, probability models and the prediction models, you get some sense of where we are headed and what the likely outcome will be.
Voter-Intention Polls
When we aggregate all of the polls together for all of the Senate races up for election, RealClearPolitics no tossups maps points to a 51 Republican and 49 Democratic makeup of the 2015 U.S. Senate. So as of October 26, 2014, the vote-intention surveys are pointing to a Republican majority in the Senate.
By October 26, 2012 in the U.S. presidential race, Mitt Romney was up +.9 percent. With the polls closing before the voting with President Obama up +.9 percent. Obama won up +3.9 percent of the vote. This shows that with just a week or so before the elections, an aggregation of the polls is not enough to predict the outcome. When elections are close it is not enough to gauge an expected outcome even within a week or so of the election when the voting intentions are so close. In other words, we have a number of Senate races that are within the margin of error of the polling.
So when we look at voter-intention surveys alone, we cannot draw a definitive conclusion as to who will ultimately control the Senate chamber.
Probability Models
These models are actually better, with some being better than others, at gauging where we stand from a probability perspective about the outcome of the election. Of the seven probability models that are produced for this midterm Senate election, six of these models give the GOP a 61% to 87% chance of winning control. The outlier probability model is at 50%.
In looking at the probability model for the 2012 presidential race on October 23, 2012, President Obama had a 68 percent chance of winning.
These probability models do not guarantee the Republicans will win control of the Senate, but all of them but one of the seven signal the GOP as the favorite to win control or majority.
Prediction Models
The prediction market is a place where individuals can make bets on who will win the 2014 U.S. Senate by a 51 to 49 margin. The prediction markets can incorporate a lot of additional information that are not in polls or probability models. So it is another model that we can look at to give us an estimate as to what the final outcome of the election might be.
As of October 24, 2014, the prediction market gives the Republicans an 86% chance of winning 51 Senate seats. This is up from 69% two weeks ago. So this prediction market is trending in the GOP’s direction for control of the Senate.
When you look at the prediction market for the 2012 presidential election on October 24, 2012, they were giving Obama a 63% chance of winning the election.
Conclusion
So we cannot say definitely that Republicans will win control of the Senate in 2014. But we can definitely draw the conclusion that this is the most likely outcome. Due to the fact that all three types of models are pointing in this direction.
Thursday, October 23, 2014
What strategy will help you grow your business most profitably?
| What strategy will help you grow your business most profitably? There are many different ways that we can grow our business. We can grow our business by cutting our prices. We can grow our business by acquiring other businesses. These tactics will work in the short-run. For example, if we cut our prices in the short-term it may attract additional customers but at what cost? If that strategy is used as a continuing competitive strategy, it will ultimately affect the brand of our firm in the marketplace and ultimately cause a reduction in our margins. This will in turn put us on a tread-mill to an ever decreasing margin. If we try to only grow our business through acquisitions, this will always come at a price or cost. In other words, we have to make an investment to buy out the company and then try to develop a relationship with the other company customers and hope that we keep enough of them to make it worth our while. There is another way. There is a better way. Why don't we grow new customers from our existing customer-base? This is called organic growth. This comes from creating a fully engaged customer base. Do you know how engaged your customers are? Research tells us that the average business does about one-third of the business they could do from their current customers. In other words, if you do one million in sales, then there are approximately 2 million in sales potential from your existing clients. In order to increase the amount of business you do with current clients and acquire new customers from your current customers, you have to fully engage them. The market place shows us that customers who are fully engaged represent an average of 23% premium in terms of share of wallet, profitability, revenue and relationship growth over the average customer. Companies that engage both their employees and customers gain a 240% boost in performance-related business outcome. To learn more about scheduling a discussion session call (919)348-9153 or (804)651-5400 or reply to this email. Testimonial: "Amos is a fantastic resource. They have given us ideas and support to help take us to a new level" - Business Owner |
Tuesday, October 7, 2014
12 Habits of Extraordinarily Motivated People
12 Habits of Extraordinarily Motivated People
Highly successful people are extremely motivated to succeed. Learn their secrets and put them to work for you.
Extraordinarily motivated people are driven to go above and beyond, they are trusted by others, focused, have great confidence in their own abilities, they dream of endless possibilities, and tend to be extremely satisfied with their lives. They are more likely to receive a raise, receive a dream project, maintain longer relationships, and get promoted or recruited than their unmotivated peers.
"The will to win, the desire to succeed, the urge to reach your full potential... These are the keys that will unlock the door to personal excellence." ~Confucius
Seeking and achieving your dreams means you are really living your life. Ready to get motivated and become all you can be? Try some or all of these habits of extraordinarily motivated people and perhaps you too will find the courage to live a life of fulfilled dreams.
1. They're internally motivated
It is their intrinsic desire to be their best selves and succeed that drives their motivation. They are internally driven--not pushed--toward new adventures, the unfolding journey, and the possible outcomes--they relish challenging themselves, learning, and exploring.
2. They don't waste time judging
They objectively observe the successes and mistakes of others and learn from them instead of judging or comparing themselves. They don't waste their time with judgmental, gossipy people either.
To continue reading click 12 Habits Of Extraordinarily Motivated People
Monday, October 6, 2014
U.S. Consumer Spending Continues to Rise in September 2014 Year-Over-Year
Self-reported spending continued its year-over-year rise in September 2014 (see Chart 1 below), even though it dropped from reported levels in July and August. So this is mostly a positive sign. However, when you look closer at how the particular demographics are spending, we are seeing a drop in self-reported consumer spending by those making $90,000 or more (see Chart 2 below). This is concerning since they have more discretionary spending capacity then those making less than $90,000 a year.
Amos B Robinson,
Data Scientist
Robinson Analytics
(919)348-9153 or
(804)651-5400
www.robinsonanalytics.com
Chart 1
Chart 2
Amos B Robinson,
Data Scientist
Robinson Analytics
(919)348-9153 or
(804)651-5400
www.robinsonanalytics.com
Chart 1
Chart 2
Thursday, October 2, 2014
Monday, September 22, 2014
Travel And Tourism Spending Turned Up In Q2
TRAVEL AND TOURISM SPENDING TURNED UP IN THE SECOND QUARTER OF 2014
Real spending on travel and tourism turned up in the second quarter of 2014, increasing at an annual rate of 2.1 percent after decreasing 1.1 percent (revised) in the first quarter of 2014. Real gross domestic product (GDP) also experienced an upturn, increasing 4.2 percent (second estimate) in the second quarter after decreasing 2.1 percent in the first quarter. All major categories, with the exception of “traveler accommodations” contributed to the increase in the second quarter.
The leading contributors to the upturn in the second quarter were “recreation, entertainment, and shopping,” and “food services and drinking places.” “Recreation, entertainment, and shopping” increased 4.5 percent in the second quarter after decreasing 2.7 percent in the first quarter. “Food services and drinking places” increased 6.5 percent after decreasing 1.8 percent. “Transportation” increased as well, reflecting an upturn in “passenger air transportation” that was partly offset by a downturn in “all other transportation-related commodities.” Partially offsetting these upturns, “traveler accommodations” decreased 0.8 percent in the second quarter after increasing 0.6 percent.
Thursday, September 18, 2014
How can we become happier?
Here are 10 of my favourite recent psychology studies about happiness.
By Dr Jeremy Dean
Hope you enjoy them!
(You can click the links for longer descriptions of the studies.)
1. Happiness activates the whole body
Unlike thoughts, the emotions don’t live entirely in the mind, they are also associated with bodily sensations.
Thanks to a new study, for the first time we now have a map of the links between emotions and bodily sensations.
Finnish researchers induced different emotions in 701 participants and then got them to colour in a body map of where they felt increasing or decreasing activity.
Below are the body maps for six basic emotions.
Yellow indicates the highest level of activity, followed by red. Black is neutral, while blue and light blue indicate lowered and very low activity respectively.
It’s fascinating that happiness is the one emotion that fills the whole body with activity, including the legs, perhaps indicating that happy people feel ready to spring into action, or maybe do a jig.
2. Happiness changes our genetic code
The right kind of happiness doesn’t just feel great, it also benefits the body, right down to its instructional code.
A recent study examined the pattern of gene expression within the cells responsible for fighting off infectious diseases and defending the body against foreign materials.
Amongst people experiencing higher levels of ‘doing good’ happiness, there was a stronger expression of antibody and antiviral genes.
While doing good and feeling good both make us feel happy, it’s doing good that benefits us at the genetic level.
3. People are happier when they do the right thing
What has happened to people’s happiness all around the world as they’ve faced the economic crisis?
How have they coped with job losses, less money coming in, the sense of despair and lack of control over a nightmare that seems to have no end?
One answer is: some have pulled together.
Data from 255 metropolitan areas across the US found that communities that pull together — essentially doing nice little things for each other like volunteering and helping a neighbour out — are happier.
Social capital has a protective effect: people are happier when they do the right thing.
4. Act like an extrovert — even if you are an introvert
Acting like an extrovert — even if you are an introvert — makes people all around the world feel happier, recent research suggests.
The findings come from surveys of hundreds of people in the US, Venezuela, the Philippines, China and Japan.
Across the board, people reported that they felt more positive emotions in daily situations where they either acted or felt more extroverted.
Participants in the study were told to act in an outgoing way for 10 minutes and then report how it made them feel.
Even amongst introverts — people who typically prefer solitary activities — acting in an extroverted way gave them a boost of happiness.
5. Happiness is contagious online
Emotions expressed online — both positive and negative — are contagious, a new study concludes.
One of the largest ever studies of Facebook examined the emotional content of one billion posts over two years.
Software was used to analyse the emotional content of each post.
It turned out that positive emotions spread more strongly than the negative, with positive messages being more strongly contagious then negative.
6. Ageing changes what makes you happy
With increasing age, people get more pleasure out of everyday experiences.
A recent study asked over 200 people between the ages of 19 and 79 about happy experiences they’d had that were both ordinary and extraordinary.
Across all the age-groups in the study, people found pleasure in all sorts of experiences; both ordinary and extraordinary.
But it was older people who managed to extract more pleasure from relatively ordinary experiences.
They got more pleasure out of spending time with their family, from the look on someone’s face or a walk in the park.
Younger people, meanwhile, defined themselves more by extraordinary experiences.
7. Why materialistic people are less happy
The reason that materialistic people are less happy is that a focus on what you want — and therefore don’t currently have — makes it more difficult to appreciate what you already have.
A recent study found that materialists also feel less gratitude which, in turn, is associated with lower levels of life satisfaction.
The study quotes the words of Greek philosopher Epicurus, who said:
“Do not spoil what you have by desiring what you have not; remember that what you now have was once among the things you only hoped for.”
By law, all credit cards should have this quote across the front in fluorescent pink.
8. The power of social connections
Relationships have stronger associations with happiness than academic achievement, according to a recent study.
Whilst strong social relationships in childhood and adolescence were associated with happier adults, the associations with academic achievement were much lower.
It seems that all the education in the world won’t necessarily teach you much about what it means to be happy, in either the emotional or philosophical sense.
9. Goals that lead to happiness
Surprisingly, people are often wrong about the type of goals that will make them happiest.
New research suggests that certain concrete goals for happiness work better than abstract goals.
The study found that acts performed in the service of a concrete goal (making someone smile) made the givers themselves feel happier than an abstract goal (making someone happy).
By thinking in concrete ways about our goals for happiness, we can minimise the gap between our expectations and what is actually possible.
10. Unexpected pleasure from mundane moments
Mundane, everyday experiences can provide unexpected joy down the line, new psychological research finds.
In one study, 135 students were asked to create a time capsule at the start of the summer which included:
- a recent conversation,
- the last social event they’d attended,
- an extract from a paper they’d written,
- and three favourite songs.
At the time, they also predicted how they’d feel about these items when they opened the capsule three months later.
Despite being relatively mundane, the students significantly under-estimated how surprised and curious they would be when they opened it.
The study is a reminder of how we tend to undervalue the happiness we can get from everyday events.
So, why not make a little time capsule today?
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